It's...

As we know it...and I feel fine...

So I went to see I Am Legend the other day, largely because I have a fascination with all things dealing with the end of the world. The whole genre of Post-apocalyptic fiction fascinates me. It got me thinking, though. What are the odds of it actually happening in my lifetime? I have narrowed down the four most likely culprits, ordered them from most to least, and given you reasons for the odds in the first annual...

"Shit's about to get real" List!

We'll start with the most likely (in my estimation) culprit and work our way down the list. These odds have been checked by a Las Vegas odds-maker, and he said they are the slam-bam-diggity... Lets get to it!


1. Plague
Odds.......15 to 1
Now, by the world "ending," I mean Black Death-like statistics. Fully 1/4 of the world's population died. Any numbers including and past that will throw a pretty big monkey wrench in the machine we call "society." I placed the odds at 15 to 1 because every 100 years or so, there is a pandemic. Be it Bubonic Plague, Cholera, Spanish Flu, TB, or any number of others, something comes along to cull the herd in a pretty major way. There are a number of possible culprits out there right now. TB is making a comeback...and this time, it's drug-resistant! (Hooray!...no, wait...) The flu mutates every year. That flu shot you got? it's for last year's bug. The new kid on the block has free-range. We've got a stockpile of supposedly dead diseases (Smallpox, Polio) which I feel pretty secure about. It's the ones the Russians have (and are, I'm sure, willing to sell to the highest bidder) that make me nervous. As air travel makes the world smaller every day, it becomes more likely. Recently, a study was done in which scientsts marked a benign bacteria, seeing how quickly it would make it around the world. The answer? 24 hours. Next up, it's our old friend...



2. Nuclear War
Odds.......20 to 1
That's right kiddies, just when you thought it was safe to go back in the pool. Here's a list of countries with nuclear weapons (Thanks, wikipedia!)...

1. United States
2. Russia
3. United Kingdom
4. France
5. China
6. India
7. Pakistan
8. North Korea (Isn't that one reassuring...)
9. Israel (suspected)

The countries that are likely to use them (and against whom) is a shorter list...
in order of likelihood, they are...
1. North Korea (USA, South Korea, Japan, pretty much every one...)
2. Pakistan (India)
3. Israel (Anyone who tries to invade...again. I'm looking at you Syria, Lebanon, and Egypt!)
4. India (Pakistan)
5. China (Taiwan, USA by proxy since we told the Chinese we'd respond in kind if they did so...)

Kim Il Jong is certifiably insane. You never know what that wacky little bastard is going to do next. Pakistan and India have been up each other's butts over Kashmir since around '47. Pakistan is higher on the list because their political situation is...dicey, shall we say. Israel has been willing to lob 'em since they got 'em, which is probably why they still exist as a country right now. The China-Taiwan thing has cooled in recent years, but is ALWAYS on the verge of another flare-up. I took us, the Russians, the French, and the British off the list because I just don't see one of those four pulling that ugly little trigger. If you disagree, tell me why in the comments section! There are two more, which I'll post about on Monday! Stay Tuned!

When we last left our intrepid explorers...

We (the royal we, that is) left off at the end of one of the first confontations that stirred the pot that was Cuban Missile Crisis soup (which does NOT come with the free breadsticks, so don't even ask), the US Naval blockade of Cuba. The Russians had lost the battle, but still definitely felt they could win the war. So strap in kids, here's the exciting conclusion of...
Cuban Missile Crisis
Part IV, "A New Hope..." (NERD!)

October 24-25
The State Department floated an idea. If the Russians pulled the missiles out of Cuba, the US would remove a series of missile bases it had established in Turkey (which is about as close to Russia as Cuba is to the US, at least as far as missile launch and response time is concerned).

By late afternoon of the 25th, U2 flights and a series of CIA operatives in Cuba confirmed that work on the missile sites had not slowed down at all. Kennedy (who, if you'll remember, always had an itchy trigger finger as far as the Cubans were concerned) wanted to invade to remove the missiles, but (and this will become a theme, thank God) cooler heads prevailed, and diplomacy was allowed to continue.

*****Special Sidebar!*****
Backdoor Diplomacy
The Crisis was full of it. ABC News (!) was carrying on discussions with Aleksandr Formin (Washington D.C. KGB Section Chief, c. 1960-1964) about the removal of missiles from Cuba in return for a guarantee that the US would never invade the island. A message was passed by the Brazilian (!) Embassy in Cuba to Castro, telling him to pressure the Russians to remove the missiles to protect his borders from the threat of US invasion.
(* A note on Russian foreign relations...The Russians didn't have "alliances." They tended to be wary of (Castro) and sometimes openly confrontational with (Mao in China) other Communist leaders. They were looking out for their own interests, and expected other Communist states (outside of Europe) to do the same. Until the missiles were on Cuban soil, there was little formal relationship between Havana and Moscow, and as soon as the missiles were removed (I gave away the ending...oh no!) there would again be little formal relationship. To prove the point, Nixon went to Russia before Castro even thought about doing so, and only went in '73 after Nixon's SECOND visit in May of '72. I'd say they were friendly enough with each other, but definitely "chilly." Now, back to the action! [thank you Encyclopedia Americana for the Nixon info])

6:00 that night...
Khrushchev wrote and had delivered a letter written in his own hand that Robert Kennedy would later describe as "long and emotional" that basically said "if you keep up your end of the bargain, I'll keep up mine."

October 27...
Things get "el testy-o" in Cuba
Castro is BALLSY, you've gotta give him that. Case in point...
Castro was convinced the US was going to invade (can you blame him? Look at the history!), so he was pressuring the Russians to not remove the missiles, but USE them! He also oredered his Anti-aircraft gunners to shoot down any US planes over Cuban soil (an open act of "hostility," or war).
Khrushchev, in the mean time, was working his magic. He wanted the missiles out of Turkey, and said so in a radio address on Radio Moscow. Robert McNamara, in the mean time, had a stroke of brilliance when he realized no one told the Russians where the blockade line was (dumbasses). he had U Thant (UN Sec. General) relay a message to prevent any stickiness.

Later in the day, Castro made good on his word and shot down a U2 spy plane flying over Cuba. A sortie of US planes was also fired upon but not destroyed. Kennedy had said he would attack Cuba if this happened, but decided to wait to see if diplomacy could still carry the day (cooler heads!).

October 27-28...
Kennedy and Khrushchev, playing the world's most important game of "telephone," continued negotiating about the missiles in Turkey. For the sake of brevity, I'll sum it up. Kennedy wanted the missiles out of Cuba, and was willing to take the missiles out of Turkey, but didn't want the world to think the Russians made him do it. Khrushchev wanted the missiles out of Turkey, and was willing to take the ones out of Cuba. Turkey, for it's part, wanted the missiles to stay, but who cares what Turkey wants? Turkey doesn't want to get cooked on Thanksgiving, but we still eat it in late November (plus sandwich time for the next week or two). Kennedy wasn't going to let the Russians save any face on the Turkey Situation. The Russians were mulling it over, and to prod them along, Kennedy had a message sent through official diplomatic channels saying "time is short, poop or get off the pot." He was telling the Russians "either take the deal or we'll invade Cuba."

October 28....
It worked. Khrushchev ordered the dimantling of the missiles and their immediate return to the Soviet Union. Kennedy immediately gave a speech praising the Russians for taking an important step in the peace process. People all across America were putting finishing touches on bomb shelters that, while awesome, would never be used during the Cold War.

"A schooner is a sailboat, stupidhead!" (What the big picture is...)
This was the event that saved the (up to that time, disastrous) Kennedy presidency, and would get his name mentioned in the same breath as Lincoln (the ULTIMATE American compliment).

Khrushchev kept power for two years, and was eventually ousted by Leonid Brezhnev, many believe due to the "loss of face" that occured during the Crisis. Brezhnev would hold the post of General Secretary longer than anybody but Stalin (1964-1982).

Castro is still as nutty as squirrel turds, chattering like a monkey in Havana to this day. Americans are still prohibited from travelling to Cuba and have to go to Canada to get cigars.

The Soviet Union would collapse in 1990-91.

In honor of the new set up...

A History Lesson! Hooray! Gather 'round kiddies/and you shall see/ the midnight ride/ of a U2 spy plane, a fat Soviet (who looks a little like Don Zimmer), and a Massachusetts cuckolder. That's right...

Cuban Missile Crisis!


The Setting...

Seeing it as his duty to Monroe Doctorine/Rosevelt Corollary politics, JFK decided Castro had to go. Cuba was too sweet a place to leave in the hands of those dirty commies. Havana, after all, was the Las Vegas of it's time. When you hear someone say "It's not Havana in the 50's, but it's nice(as I often do)," they mean that it isn't the place to be. Castro gained power in Cuba in 1959, and the democrats (not those democrats, just people who supported Democracy in general) scattered like 17 year olds at a keg party getting raided by the cops. By April 15, 1961, a brigade of Cuban ex-pats (whose training started under Eisenhower) was ready for an invasion to take back the motherland. They landed on the Bay of Pigs, got CRUSHED (thanks in large part to the fact that Kennedy wouldn't authorize direct US support, not wanting to literally "poke the (Russian) bear."), and left Kennedy with a HUGE black eye. See, the whole world knew it was us, but (hooray plausible deniability!) couldn't prove it (yet). Che Guevara (you know, the guy on the T-Shirts!) famously sent Kennedy a note stating: "Thanks for Playa Giron (Bay of Pigs). Before the invasion, the revolution was weak, Now it's stronger than ever."(*Thanks, Wikipedia, for the quotiness!) Now you get why Kennedy had such a bug up his but about Cuba...

The Event...(with a picture of the "Cuban Missiles" in question, shot by the U2!)

October 14, 1962...
A U2 spy plane flying over San Cristobal in Western Cuba snaps the photo above, along with PLENTY of others, of Russian SS-4 and SS-5 Medium and Long Range Ballistic Missiles. How did we know to take the pictures? Prepare to be shocked...the FRENCH told us the Cubans were getting the boom-boom phalluses early in 1962. Can you believe that?

October 16...
Kennedy meets with his cabinet to discuss the situation, having seen the photos earlier in the morning (presumably after the skank of the day got booted out of his office in yesterday's dress, reeking of cigarette smoke with a little vomit in her hair...Kennedy liked 'em dirty). The big problem here is that there was NO policy regarding Soviet action in Cuba. American foreign policy makers always thought that if the Russians EVER made a move, it'd be in Berlin (which was the heart of the Cold War from beginning to end, except for these two weeks in October). ANYHOOT, the Joint Chiefs said "Invade." Problem was, we invade Cuba, the Soviets use it as an excuse to invade Berlin, Kennedy gets blamed, not to mention The Day After moving from the "fiction" to "biography" section at the burnt-out husk of the Blockbuster. Robert McNamara (then Secretary of Defense) suggested a blockade. Technically, it was still an act of war, but with approval from the Organization of American States, Kennedy could claim it was legal. Things were getting ugly.

October 18...
The Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Soviet Union tells Kennedy they weren't missiles, it was a land reform project...with missiles...I mean...damn...Look, John D. Rockefeller throwing silver dollars from a zeppelin! (Minister runs out of room, Kennedy goes to get wash-basin to collect silver dollars, gets halfway to the White House shed, realizes he's been duped, and shakes a fist at the heavens).

October 19...
U2 spy plane photos show between 4 and 5 operational missile sites (depending on your source). Kennedy tells the British and other allies of the plans for blockade, etc. and tells them to keep it on the D-L until he can address the nation. Strategic Air Command (SAC) lanches what will become round-the-clock flights of B-52 Stratofortresses armed with nuclear missiles, ready to launch a full first-strike against the Soviet Union should either side flinch...this was high-stakes fo' sho'.

Looking to rust some tin roofs in the USSR, bitches!

October 22...
Kennedy addresses the nation. He states that (and I'm paraphrasing here) any missile launched from Cuba will be seen as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, and will be met with a full retaliatory response. He announces the blockade and places US forces on DEFCON 3, which moved radio communication to classified codes and increased force readiness. 180 US ships are ready to blockade that bitch!

October 23...
Khrushchev calls the blockade illegal and tells his ships to run it.

October 24, 10 A.M....
The blockade officially goes in to effect. When the blockade goes in to effect, there are nineteen Soviet vessels bound for Cuba. 16 turn right back around and head for the Soviet union. The tanker Bucharest continues heading for US lines, while two other ships, the Gagarin and Komiles, were miles from US lines and being escorted by a submarine that was sandwiched between the two. Force was authorized to stop the ships. Less than a half an hour later, all the ships had stopped advancing towards US lines. At this point, Dean Rusk famously quipped, "We're eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked." This would be the first of a number of NEAR misses over the next few days.

Later in the day, after Khrushchev publicly said that "pirate actions" would not be tolerated. He also sent a private telegram to Kennedy that said in much cooler but no less uncertain terms that the Soviets could not and would not back down. So much for blinking, douchebag...

Propmted by these messages, for the only time in it's history, US Armed Forces were put on DEFCON 2, one step from open armed conflict. By comparison, we only reached DEFCON 3 on September 11th, 2001. This...was...BIG trouble in Little China, with Khrushchev as Lo Pan, The Kennedy Boys as Jack Burton, Adlai Stevenson (...Don't wait for the translation, yes or no, you are in the courtroom of world opinion...) as Gracie Law, and McNamara as Egg Shen.

I'm going to stop here, and let this all set in...I'll be back tomorrow with the thrilling conclusion. Check it out, yo!